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July 26, 2026AtmosphereOpen Access

Sentinel-2-Based Monitoring and Projection of Lake Burdur Shrinkage in a Climate-Sensitive Semi-Arid Agricultural Basin Using Centroid Kinematics and Robust Trend Modeling

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Authors

MGMuzaffer GöztaşIstanbul Technical UniversityNÜNida ORUÇ ÜNALIstanbul UniversityDYDoğan YıldızTurkish Academy of Sciences

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Implication

Randomized study demonstrates lake surface area shrinkage in a semi-arid basin, suggesting robust modeling approaches for monitoring.

Key Points

  • The aim is to analyze the changes in surface area and spatial trends of Lake Burdur using satellite imagery from 2015 to 2025.
  • Utilized 111 monthly Sentinel-2 satellite images for lake analysis.
  • Applied three-cluster K-means segmentation for water surface masking.
  • Employed OLS linear and logarithmic models with Monte Carlo cross-validation to assess trends.
  • The logarithmic trend model was more reliable in the X/West direction.
  • The linear model performed better in the Y/South direction.
  • Projections for 2026–2035 showed stability in projection bands under coefficient uncertainty.

Cite This Study

Göztaş et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a65a6b5d3aea3239cd77dc8https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17080710
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