Unravelling the relationship between exercise‐induced affective responses and daily physical activity in people with chronic diseases: Spillover or confounding effect?

Objectives Exercise‐induced affective responses (ARs) may encourage people with chronic diseases (PCD) to engage in future physical activity (PA). This study examined whether AR timing during exercise predicts daily moderate‐to‐vigorous PA (MVPA) in PCD and explored two mediating pathways: the reflective affect processing pathway (via remembered pleasure, forecasted pleasure and affective attitudes) and the self‐efficacy pathway (via self‐efficacy towards exercise and PA). Design Prospective correlational design. Methods A total of 109 adults (M age = 66.6 years, 79% women) with chronic diseases reported ARs and perceived exertion four times during an exercise session. Post‐exercise measures included remembered and forecasted pleasure, BMI, affective attitudes and self‐efficacy. Daily MVPA was measured using accelerometers over eight days. Total PA (light‐intensity PA and MVPA) was examined as a secondary outcome. Results The last AR predicted daily MVPA ( β = .24, p = .041), but this association became non‐significant after adjusting for confounders (BMI, perceived exertion). In contrast, the last AR predicted total PA independently of confounders ( β = .30, p = .008). Exploratory mediation analyses partially supported the reflective affect processing pathway: ARs predicted affective attitudes via remembered and forecasted pleasure, though affective attitudes did not predict either PA outcome. The self‐efficacy pathway was supported for MVPA only, albeit with a modest indirect effect ( β = .05). Conclusions The last AR did not predict daily MVPA after adjusting for confounders, questioning a spillover effect from exercise sessions to MVPA. Secondary analyses suggest the last AR may predict total PA regardless of confounders, hinting at an intensity‐specific spillover. Findings should be interpreted cautiously given the limited sample size and the exploratory nature of secondary analyses.