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July 26, 2026Journal of Transportation Engineering Part A Systems

Dynamic Reconstruction and Assessment Model of Road Accident Risk Domain Incorporating Spatial Attenuation Effects and Multidimensional Coupling

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Authors

JLJianfeng LiuFLFuyuan LuoJCJ K Chen

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Overview

Develops a model to improve road accident risk assessment, enhancing safety management through innovative techniques.

Key Points

  • The aim is to create a model for road accident risk that overcomes limitations of traditional methods by integrating spatial and severity factors.
  • Developed a dynamic spatial attenuation model based on information diffusion and Gaussian kernel density estimation (KDE).
  • Established a continuous accident severity field using an accident equivalent loss function and discretized with a quantile method.
  • Validated the model using accident data from a Class II mountain highway in Guangxi.
  • The model's probability field gradient smoothness achieved 0.0068, reducing boundary and step effects.
  • The area under the curve (AUC) for the probability field reached 0.9641, indicating a 12.79% and 15.31% improvement, while the severity field AUC was 0.8669, showing a 15.24% increase.
  • Dual-dimensional coupling effectively distinguished risk patterns, providing a basis for targeted management.

Cite This Study

Liu et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a65a962d3aea3239cd7947ahttps://doi.org/10.1061/jtepbs.teeng-9585
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