Structural factors rather than reconstruction investment drive depopulation after Japan’s 2011 disasters

Using the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake as a case study, this article investigates the factors influencing migration following a large-scale disaster. We demonstrate that a town’s post-disaster migration is influenced by the combined effect of extensive initial damage and the existence of more populous neighboring towns. This paper employs multiple methods to examine these outcomes, including fieldwork across 19 Tohoku communities, regression analysis with interactive effects estimators, and synthetic control methods. Notably, neither the extent of disaster damage nor pre-existing population differences individually explain migration patterns. Instead, the triple shock transformed these conditions into potent push and pull factors, resulting in the temporary resurgence of urbanization in regional centers. Our research suggests that pre-disaster structural factors, rather than subsequent policy interventions, drive depopulation, emphasizing the critical role of disaster risk reduction. This study provides insights into the intricate connections between disasters, reconstruction, and migration behavior. Following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, migration occurred mainly from heavily damaged towns near larger cities, as damage and population size interacted to drive temporary urbanization, based on a nested mixed-method study.