Operational Monitoring of Heritage Risk Indicators: A CIDOC-CRM Data Model for Preventive Conservation in Istanbul’s Historic Area

The Istanbul Historic Area is a heritage landscape that faces tourism, development pressure, and socio-demographic changes. Aligned with the objectives of the Istanbul Historic Areas Management Plan, this study presents a reproducible monitoring and early warning prototype for Fatih district (57 neighborhoods). The proposed approach calculates three composite indices at the neighborhood-year level using 2014–2024 panel data: pressure (P) reflects tourism and development dynamics; vulnerability (V) measures socio-demographic and economic sensitivity, conceptualized here as a driver of indirect pressure on heritage through reduced community capacity for upkeep and advocacy; and heritage sensitivity (S) represents conservation status. The risk scores obtained using these indices (R = P × V, RS = P × S) are classified into ‘low-medium-high' using panel-wide fixed thresholds (p33/p66), which give insights not only to ‘where’ but also ‘under what conditions and when'. This monitoring system, built on a lightweight CIDOC-CRM compliant data backbone, represents a key methodological contribution. In this model, every indicator is tagged regarding location, time, data source, and method to transform it into a traceable and auditable evidence record. Results suggest persistent high-risk hotspots concentrate in the Beyazıt-Sultanahmet and Zeyrek areas, where pressure and fragility combine, and episodic risk patterns for some other neighborhoods. The study concludes by presenting a scalable reference model that embeds preventive conservation principles into urban governance, offering a transparent and cost-effective decision-support infrastructure to enable proactive intervention before irreversible damage occurs.