Urban Displacement Index for Assessing Growth Pressure Around Heritage Conservation: A Multi-Scale Spatial Analysis of Safranbolu, Türkiye

Historic urban landscapes face development pressures that often shift beyond protected heritage boundaries. This study evaluates the spatial redirection of urban development pressure around the UNESCO World Heritage Site of Safranbolu, Türkiye (2015–2025) using a multi-scale Urban Displacement Index (UDI) framework. Integrating Landsat imagery, spectral indices (NDVI, BSI, NDBI), Global Moran’s I, and Getis–Ord Gi* hotspot analysis, the framework quantifies continuous distance-decay metrics (UDImicro) and zonal transfer ratios (UDImacro) across the Core (Zone 1), Buffer (Zone 2), and Fringe (Zone 3) zones. Empirical results demonstrate strong institutional containment in Zone 1, validated by high structural stability and low micro-displacement scores (UDImicro= 0.71), where the core served as the baseline reference (UDImacro = 1.00 by definition). However, development pressure systematically deflected outward, escalating in Zone 2 (UDImicro = 0.78; UDImacro = 1.10) and peaking in Zone 3 (UDImicro = 0.81; UDImacro = 1.14). Trajectory analysis confirms a structural shift from parallel displacement (2015–2020) to an intensified leapfrog expansion model (2020–2025), bypassing intermediate buffers to form severe hotspots in the unconstrained fringe (UDImacro = 1.20). BSI dynamics successfully detected early land preparation prior to impervious surface consolidation. This multi-scale framework advances heritage monitoring by transitioning from site-centered protection to landscape-scale displacement analysis, supporting UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 11 and SDG 15).