Mid-late Holocene cooling shaped agricultural transformation on the Tibetan Plateau

Climate change threatens global food security, yet the long-term effects of climate variability on agriculture remain poorly understood in high-altitude regions such as the Tibetan Plateau, where millions of people depend on pastoralism and small-scale agriculture. Here we show how mid- to late Holocene temperature variability shaped agricultural transformation across the Tibetan Plateau. By integrating newly generated and published proxy records and employing Monte Carlo simulations to account for uncertainties, we reconstruct regional temperature variability. Our results show that mid- to late Holocene cooling drives a shift from thermophilic millet-based cultivation to a cold-resilient wheat- and barley-dominated system. We further find that the rate of temperature change exerts a primary control on agricultural stability and human responses. Episodes of heightened climate variability correspond with declines in crop productivity, whereas more stable conditions are associated with agricultural expansion and sociopolitical florescence. These findings imply that the rate of environmental change is an important determinant of resilience in highland agroecosystems. Mid–late Holocene cooling on the Tibetan Plateau shifted farming from millet to wheat–barley, and temperature changes affected agricultural productivity and society, according to an analysis that integrates temperature proxies and uses Monte Carlo simulations.