Pathogen Forecast Model Version 1.0: A Process-based Five-Day Beach Advisory Forecast System for the San Diego/Tijuana Region

Falk Feddersen; M. S. Spydell; Akanksha Gupta; Sarah N. Giddings; Amaia Ruiz de Alegría Arzaburu; Ian Brunjes; Corey Olfe; C. O. Anderson; Andrew D. Barton; James Behrens; Katherine Berman; Jeff S. Bowman; Bruce D. Cornuelle; G Gopalakrishnan; Shelby Marhoefer‐Jess; Uwe Send; Matthias Lankhorst; Nathalí Cordero Quirós

doi:10.1021/acs.est.6c04225

Key Points

The study aims to develop and evaluate the Pathogen Forecast Model (PFM) for predicting beach advisory exceedances.
Developed a process-based model for pathogen forecasting.
Evaluated model accuracy through classification of advisory exceedances.
Analyzed performance metrics including sensitivity and specificity.
PFM achieved nearly 80% raw accuracy in forecasting.
Demonstrated high sensitivity but lower specificity in advisory exceedances.
Resolving estuarine, surfzone, and shelf regions marked a first in forecasting.

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Implication

Forecast model improves beach advisory accuracy in the San Diego/Tijuana region, suggesting benefits for public health.

Abstract

, PFM classified advisory exceedances with nearly 80% raw accuracy, high sensitivity, and lower specificity. This is the first forecast model that resolves estuarine, surfzone, and shelf regions. PFM is a useful public health tool and is constantly being improved.

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Cite This Study

Feddersen et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a69a28ac8da07d9defa61a2 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6c04225

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Pathogen Forecast Model Version 1.0: A Process-based Five-Day Beach Advisory Forecast System for the San Diego/Tijuana Region

Key Points

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Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

Pathogen Forecast Model Version 1.0: A Process-based Five-Day Beach Advisory Forecast System for the San Diego/Tijuana Region

Key Points

Ask about this paper

Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

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