From truce to war and back: resource allocation, learning, and civil society in conflict dynamics

Historical episodes, such as the World War I ‘live-and-let-live’ system, show that local cooperation can emerge even in extreme conflict, yet large-scale wars persist. We develop an analytical model where soldiers play a coordination game under replicator dynamics, and a command authority allocates a limited enforcement budget, creating individual uncertainty. Risk-averse soldiers respond to inequality in punishment, making distribution matter. The commander learns over time, generating hysteresis: once enforcement crosses a threshold, peace may be irreversibly lost. Civil society monitoring imposes reputational costs on the commander, potentially reversing hysteresis. We analytically characterize stable equilibria, thresholds, and the role of resource allocation, learning, and civil society. The framework explains war persistence despite local cooperation and provides policy levers: transparency, monitoring, and early intervention.