A Branching Poisson Process Model for the Analysis of Computer Failure Patterns

Summary Current reliability models predict that the failure pattern of a computer should form a Poisson process. Experience has shown, however, that the times-between-failures of a computer are not exponentially distributed, and that successive times-between-failures are not independent. These deviations from a Poisson process are due to imperfect repair of failed components; the resulting failure pattern is described by a branching Poisson process model. The probabilistic properties of this model are derived and used to analyse three series of computer failures.