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Widespread shifts from individual motorised transport to more sustainable alternatives are needed but lagging behind. Although social norms are recognised as influencing travel behaviour, evidence from real-world, locally embedded contexts on their impacts beyond intentions remains limited. Our study addresses this gap and asks whether the perceived degree of active travel choices (i.e., walking and cycling) in the neighbourhood affects travel attitudes and behaviour over time. Drawing on social influence and habit discontinuity theories, we examine this for people moving house versus stayers, arguing that movers may be especially susceptible to changed local social norms. We investigate this and alternative links using a longitudinal, quasi-experimental design based on four waves of panel data with propensity-matched mover ( n = 839) and stayer ( n = 839) samples. Results from Random-Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Models indicate that stayers show almost no longitudinal variable interrelations, while movers exhibit reciprocal norm-behaviour dynamics. Within movers, higher local social norms for active travel predicted later increases in walking and reductions in car use, while higher cycling and lower car use predicted later increases in local social norms for active travel (after controlling for built environment changes). Similar ‘reverse’ associations emerged from cycling behaviour to attitude. Our findings suggest that neighbours' travel choices can affect an individual's behaviour, especially when relocating. Conversely, individuals' choices may affect their perceptions of the neighbourhood. Local norm messaging is expected to further accelerate behaviour change in high-cycling neighbourhoods, while structural and system-level interventions are needed to promote alternatives to car use in low-cycling neighbourhoods.
Stolze et al. (Sat,) studied this question.