MaxEnt-Based Prediction of Grasshopper Distribution in Hulun Buir in Response to Climate and CO2 Changes

Based on distribution data and environmental variables from Hulun Buir, this study applied an optimized MaxEnt model to assess grasshopper habitat suitability under current and future climates. The model performed well (AUC: 0.869/0.829), identifying western regions as currently highly suitable due to cold-season precipitation, thermal stability, terrain–vegetation heterogeneity, and human activity. Projections under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios indicate habitat expansion correlated with CO2 increases, illustrating how climate warming and rising CO2 jointly drive distribution shifts. These findings support early warning and adaptive management of grasshopper outbreaks in the region.