A machine learning-derived and functionally validated circadian rhythm signature predicts clinical outcomes and in silico drug sensitivity in colorectal cancer

Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) displays considerable heterogeneity in clinical outcomes, highlighting the need for reliable prognostic biomarkers. While the aberrant expression of circadian rhythm-related genes has been implicated in cancer pathogenesis, its comprehensive role in CRC progression and predicted therapeutic vulnerabilities remains inadequately characterized. Methods Bulk and single-cell RNA-sequencing data were integrated from multiple CRC cohorts. A circadian rhythm signature (CRS) was developed through machine learning algorithms and validated for prognostic value. Comprehensive analyses of tumor microenvironment, genomic alterations, and drug sensitivity were performed. Furthermore, the biological function of the core gene, BHLHE40, was validated in CRC cell lines through CCK-8, EdU, and wound healing assays. Results Single-cell analysis demonstrated an elevated expression signature of circadian rhythm-related genes in dendritic cells. The optimized CRS, comprising 14 circadian rhythm-related genes, successfully categorized patients into high- and low-risk groups. Patients with a high CRS showed markedly poorer overall survival and computationally inferred immunosuppressive features, including reduced CD8+ T cell infiltration and increased M2 macrophage polarization. Genomic analysis revealed enhanced mutation burden in TP53 and alterations in RTK-RAS/WNT pathways. Notably, in vitro assays confirmed that BHLHE40 is significantly overexpressed in CRC cells. Knockdown of BHLHE40 markedly inhibited tumor cell proliferation and migration. Drug sensitivity profiling identified bexarotene and SMER-3 as potential therapeutic options for high-CRS patients. A nomogram integrating CRS with clinical parameters demonstrated superior predictive accuracy for 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival. Conclusions The CRS represents a promising prognostic biomarker that reflects tumor immune status and genomic features, providing valuable insights for personalized treatment strategies in CRC.