Expectation/Disillusion and Presidential Popularity: The Reagan Experience

The Sigelman-Knight analysis of the interpretation of recurring declines in presidential popularity is replicated with data on the Reagan presidency. There is a connection between Reagan's popularity and expectations about what he would be able to accomplish, but (just as was the case during the Carter presidency, and directly counter to predictions) it was the more highly educated whose expectations of presidential performance were initially highest. Moreover, as time passed the size of the education-based gap in expectations of Reagan increased over time. These findings leave the expectation/disillusion interpretation in considerable doubt. Lee Sigelman is Professor and Chairman, and Kathleen Knight is Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science, University of Kentucky. Public Opinion Quarterly Vol. 49:209-213 ? by the Trustees of Columbia University Published by Elsevier Science Publishing Co., Inc. 0033-362X/85/0049-209/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.249 on Wed, 03 Aug 2016 05:45:34 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 210 LEE SIGELMAN AND KATHLEEN KNIGHT have more realistic, and therefore lower, expectations than the less educated do. (4) As time passes, this gap should narrow considerably as the less educated become more disillusioned. Analysis of data gathered in nationwide surveys between 1977 and 1979 revealed strong support for the first two propositions, but not for the latter two. Across a wide range of policy areas, there was no consistent relationship one way or the other between level of education and confidence that President Carter would achieve his goals; moreover, the size of the education-based gap in expectations remained unchanged over