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Simple methods for predicting runoff from watersheds are important in engineering practice, particularly in flood forecasting and water-balance calculation. In this paper, we illustrate that the often used SCS runoff curve-number approach in its most elementary form can be derived from assuming that only the saturated areas contribute to direct runoff. With this approach the initial abstraction or the amount of water required before runoff starts is equal to air-filled pore space per unit area for the most shallow soil in the watershed. Air-filled pore space throughout the year was calculated with aid of the simple water balance employing the Thornthwaite-Mather procedure for the most shallow soil in the watershed. By plotting the effective precipitation defined as the amount of precipitation minus the initial abstraction against the observed runoff for two watersheds in Australia and three in the northeastern United States we found that the SCS curve-number equation in its elementary form fitted the data well.
Steenhuis et al. (Mon,) studied this question.