Old petrol in new bottles? The geopolitical implications of the energy transition in the Middle East and North Africa

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will remain central to global energy security even as the world moves away from fossil fuels. The region combines major hydrocarbon exports and exceptional renewable potential, yet faces persistent armed conflict, uneven infrastructure, and dependence on imported technology. Research rarely examines these risks together across the four dimensions of energy security: availability, accessibility, affordability, and acceptability. We address this gap by combining data on solar irradiation, capacity, electricity transmission networks, technology imports and 850 energy-related events (2018–2024). Using descriptive spatial mapping, we identify where resources and infrastructure overlap with conflict and public contestation. Findings show that abundant resources do not translate evenly into installed capacity. Conflict exposure and weak grid connectivity coincide with lower energy accessibility, while concentrated import patterns leave technology operation and maintenance vulnerable to a few external suppliers. Among 15 renewable-specific protest events, grievances focus on local socioeconomic issues, such as land use and power access rather than ideological opposition. The transition therefore does not remove energy geopolitics from the region. Instead, it shifts risk toward infrastructure security, technology supply chains, and localized distributional conflict.