Recalibrating expectations: navigating optimism and pessimism in Big Data adoption within Portuguese policing and tourism

This article examines how professionals in policing and tourism in Portugal construct and negotiate expectations about the use of Big Data. Drawing on 63 semi-structured interviews conducted in both fields, this study adopts a qualitative approach combining grounded theory and content analysis to explore how optimism and caution are articulated in relation to data-intensive innovation. The analysis identifies four recurring dynamics: Big Data as a source of efficiency and intelligence; ethical and practical concerns; conditional acceptance through principles such as proportionality and transparency; and legitimation strategies that frame future adoption. Building on the concept of ‘recalibration’, this article shows how expressions of concern do not disrupt technological trajectories but instead function to stabilise expectations and sustain momentum for innovation. While similar ethical vocabularies circulate across sectors, the ways in which risks and conditions are operationalised differ according to distinct institutional logics and governance arrangements. The findings contribute to debates in expectation studies and Technology Analysis & Strategic Management by demonstrating how recalibration operates as a form of governance and niche strategy that can depoliticise uncertainty while legitimising future-oriented investment in Big Data. This article highlights the importance of expectation management for responsible innovation governance and cross-sectoral learning.