A dual life cycle framework for proactive emerging pollutant management

Emerging pollutants in home and personal care products threaten progress toward clean water worldwide. Life cycle assessment tracks materials from production to disposal but often misses how markets, rules, and wastewater treatment evolve and shape emissions. Here we show a dual life cycle framework that links material flows from production to use with the product market from introduction to withdrawal. Applied to triclosan in China from 1970 to 2060, it shows that consumption growth driven by gross domestic product and population, moderated by regulation and expansion of wastewater treatment, reduces emissions and risk, with a brief peak around 2010. Proactive policies reduce emissions by 66.6%, and regional coordination adds a further 8.13%. Differences in chemical properties, disposal routes, and the timing of consumption and treatment call for compound specific strategies. This approach reframes pollution control from reactive cleanup to prevention. Risk declined from widespread concern to control with peak around 2010 driven by regulation and treatment expansion, according to a dual life cycle framework integrating material flows and market evolution applied to triclosan in China from 1970 to 2060