Where Did They Go After HOPE VI? A Longitudinal Study of Long-Term Neighborhood Attainment Outcomes in Chicago

This study examines the long-term residential outcomes of Chicago public housing residents displaced by the HOPE VI program, which demolished distressed developments and redeveloped some into mixed-income communities. Using individual residential history data from 1980 to 2021 and administrative data on subsidized housing, we examine where displaced residents moved to, how the neighborhood characteristics of HOPE VI displacees compare with those of similar but voluntary movers, and, among HOPE VI displacees, how outcomes differ by relocation housing type—traditional subsidized housing, new mixed-income housing, or the private market. Our study finds that HOPE VI displacement had the effect of moving residents into neighborhoods with higher Black population shares, lower median incomes, and lower educational attainment compared to the neighborhood environments of the control group. Among relocatees, fewer than 10% accessed mixed-income redevelopments; these residents experienced slightly fewer moves and eventually improved neighborhood outcomes in education and racial composition. Private-market movers saw short-term neighborhood-level gains in income and racial integration that dissipated over time.