How government performance, informational environment, trust, and traditional authority shape local land governance in Africa

Land governance in African countries often unfolds at the intersection of formal state institutions and informal traditional authority structures. In many communities, unelected traditional leaders and chiefs continue to wield substantial influence over land allocation and local dispute resolution, operating alongside elected officials. These patterns raise critical questions about how perceived government performance influences who governs key resources, such as land. Does a well-performing state crowd out the influence of traditional authorities, or does it create an environment where formal and informal actors collaborate for better outcomes? Our study investigates these issues, focusing on the role of chiefs in land distribution as a key outcome. We use the Afrobarometer dataset from 2021 to 2023 for 31 African countries in which traditional authorities govern rural and local communities. We conducted moderated mediation analyses using absorbed regression (AREG), logit, and wild-cluster linear regressions, accounting for country and broad regional-level fixed effects. We find that perceived government performance is positively associated with land governance. Traditional authority positively mediates the link between government performance and land governance. Furthermore, while disinformation attenuates the mediation effect, perceived responsiveness of traditional leaders amplifies this effect. Lastly, perceived institutional trust positively strengthens the traditional authority-land governance nexus. We ground our approach in an institutionalist perspective that views governance in Africa as the product of ongoing interactions between formal state structures and informal societal institutions. We further discuss the theoretical and practical findings, as well as major limitations and avenues for future research.