Pathways towards social license for offshore wind energy: Modelling strategies to reduce conflict and increase acceptability

While the global expansion of offshore wind energy is essential to achieving net-zero emissions targets, opposition from local communities and other stakeholders is often a major barrier to implementation. The response to planned developments around the Australian coastline have shown divergent trajectories ranging from a relatively mild public response in Tasmania to sometimes vitriolic debate in New South Wales (NSW). This study uses a novel social influence model to simulate the evolution of community and other stakeholder attitudes toward offshore wind developments in both Tasmania and NSW. Results presented as Social License Graphs (SLGs) show that without intervention, Tasmania is likely to maintain an even balance between support and opposition, whereas opposition may become more entrenched in NSW. Simulated communication strategies, such as collaborative learning across key stakeholder groups and ocean literacy campaigns targeted at the broader public, provided modest reduction in the levels of community conflict, whereas traditional persuasive advertising by the offshore wind energy sector tended to increase conflict. Improving perceptions of environmental, governance and economic performance markedly improved social acceptability, potentially shifting mean attitudes in NSW from strongly negative to positive. This work demonstrates the utility of agent-based modelling for understanding and managing the social dynamics of renewable energy transitions, with findings supporting a set of policy recommendations focused on media monitoring and improving perceptions of industry performance through targeted reforms and effective communications.