When the party is over: How parties respond to electoral decline

Over the past decades, we have witnessed the severe electoral decline of formerly successful parties. Yet, we know surprisingly little about how these parties have responded to their losses. I examine the consequences of severe and persistent electoral losses through the lens of intra-party dynamics. I argue that parties react to severe decline by shifting attention to core issues and adopting more extreme positions. I theorize that this is because office-seekers are the first to abandon the sinking ship, tilting the internal power balance towards policy-motivated actors. Testing the theory with manifesto data from 18 Western European countries between 1970 and 2025, I find evidence that parties devote more attention to their core issues following their electoral decline. Parties do not, however, adopt more extreme positions on these issues. I find limited evidence that shifts in the intra-party balance are behind these changes.