Matching Potential with Promise: How Oklahoma’s Promise Shapes Academic Undermatch

Enrollment at selective colleges remains severely stratified by socioeconomic status and race/ethnicity, with many high-achieving, low-income students and students of color attending institutions that are less selective than the institution they are qualified for based on their academic credentials. In this article, we estimate the impact of Oklahoma’s Promise — a first-dollar, early commitment, need-based Promise program that students can use at any in-state college — on the likelihood of academic undermatch. Based on Perna’s (2006) model, we predict that Oklahoma’s Promise will enhance college-going behavior among low-income students early in the educational pipeline and influence college choice decisions. In our propensity forest analysis, we find that Oklahoma’s Promise receipt is associated with a significant reduction in the likelihood of academic undermatch among low-income Black, Hispanic, Native American, and White students. Together, our findings suggest that early commitment, first-dollar Promise programs that can be used at any in-state college may catalyze changes in college choice among low-income and racially minoritized students.