Strategic decarbonization of flared gas: a quantitative framework for Nigeria’s emerging blue and green hydrogen economy

This study evaluates Nigeria’s hydrogen production potential through a quantitative framework integrating mass–energy balances, resource assessments, and techno-economic modeling across blue, green, and biomass-based pathways. Analysis of southern flared natural gas totaling 1.8 billion scf/day indicates a base-case blue hydrogen yield of 2.86 Mt H 2 /year. When coupled with carbon capture and storage (CCS), this pathway delivers a net CO 2 reduction of 26.77 Mt CO 2 /year and avoids 10.67 Mt CH 4 /year of methane emissions, corresponding to a cumulative climate mitigation potential of approximately 344.77 Mt CO 2 -eq/year. Northern renewable resources and agricultural residues provide additional base-case hydrogen capacities of 6.56 Mt H 2 /year and 8.25 Mt H 2 /year, respectively, with the biomass pathway offering a route toward net-negative emissions. Collectively, these pathways yield a national base-case hydrogen potential of 17.67 Mt H 2 /year. By leveraging Nigeria’s estimated 10,700 Gt CO 2 geological storage capacity, extensive gas infrastructure, and high flaring baselines, the nation is positioned to capitalize on this resource wealth. The study synthesizes these findings into a phased national hydrogen strategy aligned with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 and the National Carbon Market Framework (2025), positioning hydrogen as a central pillar for emissions abatement, energy security, and Nigeria’s emergence as a regional hydrogen economy leader.