Crisis as a catalyst for democratisation: how Russia’s escalation of the war in Ukraine facilitated democratic progress in Moldova

Russia’s escalation of the war in neighbouring Ukraine triggered a crisis that facilitated rather than impeded further democratisation in Moldova. Through analyticist process tracing, this article shows the causal mechanisms that link Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to democratic progress in Moldova. The government’s crisis behaviour, characterised by urgency and uncertainty, led to a top-down reduction of Russian influence. Sandu and the PAS government removed the Russian leverage in the energy sector as well as the political influence of oligarch Ilan Şor. From the bottom-up, the Moldovan society legitimated the ruling elite and their actions during the crisis. Externally, the government was legitimised by the EU and its membership rewards. The findings of this analysis contribute to the ongoing academic debate on the consequences of the war in Ukraine for the EU’s enlargement and neighbourhood policy and, more generally, to our understanding of the relationship between crises and political change.