A review of rail track degradation prediction models

The increase in traffic congestion in urban areas as a result of more private transport intensifies the importance of promoting public transport and rail transport in particular. The increasing demand for rail transport will lead to more pressure and stress on rail components and consequently higher rates of degradation. If degradation of railway components is not treated by means of effective maintenance strategies, catastrophic human casualties and massive financial losses are inevitable. Degradation prediction modelling is the key element in the establishment of cost-effective and efficient maintenance strategies in railway systems. This paper reviews different models proposed in the literature for rail track degradation prediction, including mechanistic models, statistical models and Artificial Intelligence (AI) models. In addition, the advantages and disadvantages of each model are explained, and factors influencing rail track degradation are investigated.