Sexual overperception as a proximate identification problem

Sexual overperception, the tendency to infer sexual interest from ambiguous cues, is commonly interpreted through Error Management Theory (EMT). EMT explains why asymmetric error costs could favor decision policies that reduce costly missed opportunities. However, an ultimate-level account does not identify the proximate mechanism that produces observed sex differences in sexual-interest judgments. Here, I formalize these judgments using signal detection theory (SDT) and Bayesian decision theory to show that the same apparent overperception pattern can arise from differences in sensitivity, prior belief, utility weighting, reporting policy, or mixtures of these components. A targeted audit of 54 empirical papers showed that existing paradigms rarely measure or manipulate the quantities needed to distinguish these routes: subjective base-rate beliefs, payoff structures, sensitivity, decision criterion, and disclosure incentives. The article therefore proposes modular designs that combine operational signal definitions, hit and false-alarm reporting, signal detection estimation, direct prior elicitation, base-rate manipulation, payoff manipulations, and reporting-policy checks. These designs can help with identifying how EMT-consistent patterns are proximately implemented. Distinguishing these mechanisms is crucial as each implies different developmental pathways, boundary conditions, and intervention targets.