Peak coal electricity under rapid electricity demand growth conditions: A case study of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam

Understanding the conditions for peak coal electricity, encompassing peak coal capacity and generation, is relevant for coal-dependent emerging economies yet has received limited attention in the decarbonisation literature. Emerging economies need to reach peak coal amid rapidly growing electricity demand, whereas historical cases of peak coal electricity occurred under stable demand conditions. This study investigates when and how peak coal can be reached in expanding electricity systems by using Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, coal-dependent emerging economies with coal power plant moratoriums, as cases. We develop approaches for identifying peak coal capacity and generation: the former is determined by utilising coal power plant pipeline data, and the latter by considering the growth of coal substitutes across different scenarios. Additional analysis of total carbon emissions is conducted to understand the climate impact of the scenarios. Our results show that the case countries can reach peak coal capacity between 2026 and 2028 if moratorium policies are implemented. Peak coal generation may be reached in the 2040s or later, depending on the deployment rate and the choice of alternative energy sources. However, reaching peak coal does not necessarily lead to emission reduction. Carbon emissions are projected to continue rising in most scenarios because growth in total electricity generation can outweigh the reductions achieved by substituting coal with lower carbon sources, declining only when coal-powered generation falls sufficiently in absolute terms.