Exploring plant-level decarbonization options for coal-dependent economies: A techno-economic framework and insights from Indonesia

A managed transition for the global coal fleet requires robust decarbonization strategies for existing assets. This study develops a plant-level techno-economic framework to evaluate multiple options, including co-firing, carbon capture, and repowering, and applies it to Indonesia’s fleet of 115 coal-fired power plants. Under current market conditions with regulated electricity tariffs, most decarbonization strategies are not cost-effective compared to continued coal operation. The analysis reveals that no single solution is universally optimal and the viability is plant-specific. Direct biomass co-firing is the most applicable option, profitable for 22% of the fleet capacity (4.1 GW), while capital-intensive repowering is only viable for small, inefficient units. Conversely, deep-decarbonization technologies like CCS remain unviable without a carbon price above 50 USD/tCO 2 . The findings demonstrate that a cost-effective transition requires a differentiated and plant-specific portfolio, which is critical for coal-dependent economies worldwide.