Forest Fire Threat Mapping by Integrating Social and Remote Sensing Data: A Spatial Decision Support Case Study in the Aegean Region, Türkiye

Forest fires pose a major hazard to forest resources and natural ecosystems. Thus, it is crucial to map out regions that are prone to fire and calculate the likelihood of forest fires. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the danger of forest fires and pinpoint locations that may catch fire in the Aegean Region, one of Türkiye’s seven regions. These regions were mapped using the AHP approach. The research spans ten years, from 2014 to 2024. For the chosen approach, four primary criteria – land/vegetation, meteorology, topography, and facilities – were applied. Elevation, slope, aspect, temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, rivers, lakes, land use land cover, NDVI, campgrounds, hotels, mining areas, petrol stations, and transformer substations are some of the 16 sub-criteria that make up these primary criteria. The study’s conclusions showed that the fire risk map produced with this approach was in line with previous fires. Historical fire points from NASA FIRMS and the Difference Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) index were utilized to assess the spatial reliability of the model. While the dNBR validation yielded a correlation of 57.12% reflecting burn severity, the NASA FIRMS data demonstrated highly significant spatial coherence (Global Moran’s I = 0.616). This strong spatial agreement demonstrates that the produced fire risk map can serve as a reliable framework for proactively planning resource allocation and managing future wildfire mitigation strategies.