The Epidemiology of Peace and War

Epidemiology is a relatively advanced discipline which offers theories and methods that may be useful in helping us better understand peace and war. Similarities between peace and health, war and disease, center in concern with preservation and extension of human life, on the one hand, and prevention of physical damage and death, on the other. The epidemiological model suggests that description of peace and war should move toward an integrated definition which includes both broad and narrow dimensions. Standard measures of morbidity and mortality, and the distinction between endemic and epidemic configurations of disease, can help specify patterns of peace and war. Attempts to explain peace and war should not focus on a possible single primary agent. Instead, they should try to identify a system of multiple interrelated causes, including social, biological, and physical dimensions of the environment, as well as rational and irrational aspects of decision making. Prediction should include prognoses of the natural course of wars in general and of particular wars, as well as the identification of nations at high risk of war. Prescription implies intensive care in acute cases, positive alteration of chronic risk factors, and an experimental perspective.