Scale efficiency, profitability, and production challenges in Nigeria’s national catfish aquaculture sector

This study assesses the economic performance, scale efficiency, and production challenges in Nigeria’s catfish aquaculture sector across pre-COVID and COVID periods, with post-COVID insights from sectoral perspectives. Using a nationally representative dataset, the analysis combines scale-based evaluation, descriptive statistics, profitability metrics, and a quadratic cost function. Findings show that small-scale producers dominate the industry, though technical efficiency and profitability vary by scale. While the sector remained profitable with average profits per kilogram of N126.60 and N159.48 in pre-COVID and COVID periods, respectively, micro- and small-scale farmers recorded low returns, with many experiencing margins that may not justify continued participation. Feed-related challenges, particularly cost and quality, were the most frequently reported constraints and exit reasons. Reliance on imported feeds has declined due to increased domestic feed production. The estimated optimal production scale is between 28,000 kg/year in the pre-COVID period and 31,000 kg/year during COVID, with unit production costs minimized at approximately ₦491/kg and ₦573/kg, respectively. In the post-pandemic context, macroeconomic pressures such as inflation and currency volatility have further reduced profit margins, making resilience more critical.