Estimating Japanese consumers’ willingness to pay for a fish voucher: A policy evaluation of demand-side interventions

Global shifts in protein demand and demographic aging challenge the economic viability of traditional seafood and aquaculture markets. Using Japan as an example of these structural transitions, this paper evaluates a tax-financed fish voucher program as a targeted demand-side intervention to stabilize domestic aquatic food supply chains. Using contingent valuation data from 849 Japanese consumers, an interval regression model estimates a mean willingness to pay (WTP) of 828.63 JPY for the program. Valuation is significantly higher among high-income households, frequent seafood buyers, residents of high-consumption regions, and environmentally conscious consumers. We also identify a critical behavioral constraint: a strong preference for liquid cash depresses WTP. While vouchers offer a mechanism to support demand in sectors struggling with aging workforces and supply-side contractions, their practical success depends heavily on overcoming consumer liquidity preferences. These insights provide a replicable framework for designing efficient food system interventions to support both capture fisheries and aquaculture in aging, supply-constrained economies worldwide.