Road to the round of 16 in UEFA Champions League: Key in-game statistics for advancing from the group stages

The objective of this study was to identify the in-game statistics that help differentiate between the teams in the UEFA Champions League (UCL) group stage that advance to the round of 16.The research analyzed all matches (n=288) played among 57 teams in the UCL group stages from the 2019/2020 to 2021/2022 seasons. Linear discriminant analysis was utilized to evaluate the contribution and classification of each in-game statistic in determining team progression, while decision tree analysis helped identify critical cut-off points. Results showed that winning home games, winning away games, and the number of goals conceded effectively predicted a team's advancement to the last 16. Specifically, decision tree analysis indicated that teams with at least two home wins and at least one away win are highly likely to progress to the knockout stage. Additionally, teams with only one or no home wins must achieve at least two away wins to advance. The discriminant function demonstrated a high accuracy rate, correctly classifying 94.8% of the teams that moved on from the group stages to the last 16. Moreover, teams that conceded nine or fewer goals in the group stages were also successful in advancing to the round of 16.