What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to explore innovative Monte Carlo-based tests for analyzing Türkiye's GDP data using Markov switching models.

August 2, 2026SosyoekonomiOpen Access

Innovations in Monte Carlo-Based Markov Switching Tests: An Application to Türkiye’s GDP Data

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AGAnıl GüzelDokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Hastanesi

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Implication

Randomized trial evaluates advanced Monte Carlo tests for identifying regime shifts in Türkiye's GDP data, suggesting significant insights for economic analysis.

Key Points

The aim is to explore innovative Monte Carlo-based tests for analyzing Türkiye's GDP data using Markov switching models.
Analyzed Türkiye’s quarterly GDP data from 1998Q1 to 2024Q2 using LMC-LRT and MMC-LRT methodologies.
Compared the MSAR model with a baseline AR model to identify economic regime shifts.
Utilized tests developed by Rodríguez-Rondon and Dufour to address non-standard asymptotic distributions.
Monte Carlo tests reject the null hypothesis of no regime switching (p<0.05), confirming structural breaks in Türkiye's GDP.
The MSAR model outperformed the AR model in capturing two distinct economic regimes with varying means and variances.

Cite This Study

Anıl Güzel (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a6eeaf51b0468a7eeab3a73 https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2026.03.06

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Implication

Randomized trial evaluates advanced Monte Carlo tests for identifying regime shifts in Türkiye's GDP data, suggesting significant insights for economic analysis.

Innovations in Monte Carlo-Based Markov Switching Tests: An Application to Türkiye’s GDP Data

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Innovations in Monte Carlo-Based Markov Switching Tests: An Application to Türkiye’s GDP Data

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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