Disease Burden and Mortality of Ischemic Heart Disease in China from 2008 to 2036

To examine long-term trends and population subgroup differences in ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and disease burden in China from 2008 to 2021, and to project future trends to inform targeted prevention. Using the China Cause-of-Death Surveillance Dataset (2008–2021), we calculated crude mortality rate (CMR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), potential years of life lost (PYLL), and potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR). Temporal trends were quantified using Joinpoint regression, with results expressed as the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Age, period, and cohort effects were assessed with an age-period-cohort (APC) model. ASMR from 2022 to 2036 were forecasted by ARIMA model. In 2008, the CMR and ASMR for IHD in China was 70.98/100,000 and 79.32/100,000; In 2021, the CMR and ASMR was 143.70/100,000 and 89.12/100,000. From 2008 to 2021, the overall ASMR trend showed no statistically significant change (AAPC = 0.75%, P = 0.63), whereas PYLLR rose significantly (AAPC = 2.01, P < 0.001). IHD ASMR and PYLLR were higher in males than females ( P < 0.001), in rural than urban ( P < 0.001), and in the central region than eastern region and western region ( P < 0.001). APC analysis identified age effect as the predominant driver of IHD mortality risk. ARIMA projections indicated that IHD ASMR would remain largely stable through 2036. China’s substantial IHD burden demands prioritized primary prevention targeting younger populations, older adults, males, and rural residents. Multisectoral IHD risk-factor interventions should be integrated into national health policy to curb the rising burden.