An inquiry into the cirrus‐cloud thermostat effect for tropical sea surface temperature

In this paper, we investigate the relative importance of local vs remote control on cloud radiative forcing using a cumulus ensemble model. It is found that cloud and surface radiation forcings are much more sensitive to the mean vertical motion associated with large scale tropical circulation than to the local SST. When the local SST is increased with the mean vertical motion held constant, increased surface latent and sensible heat flux associated with enhanced moisture recycling is found to be the primary mechanism for cooling the ocean surface. Large changes in surface shortwave fluxes are related to changes in cloudiness induced by changes in the large scale circulation. These results are consistent with a number of earlier empirical studies, which raised concerns regarding the validity of the cirrus‐thermostat hypothesis (Ramanathan and Collins, 1991). It is argued that for a better understanding of cloud feedback, both local and remote controls need to be considered and that a cumulus ensemble model is a powerful tool that should be explored for such purpose.