Stochastic Performance Assessment and Sizing for a Hybrid Power System of Solar/Wind/Energy Storage

This paper proposes a stochastic framework for optimal sizing and reliability analysis of a hybrid power system including the renewable resources and energy storage system. Uncertainties of wind power, photovoltaic (PV) power, and load are stochastically modeled using autoregressive moving average (ARMA). A pattern search-based optimization method is used in conjunction with a sequential Monte Carlo simulation (SMCS) to minimize the system cost and satisfy the reliability requirements. The SMCS simulates the chronological behavior of the system and calculates the reliability indices from a series of simulated experiments. Load shifting strategies are proposed to provide some flexibility and reduce the mismatch between the renewable generation and heating ventilation and air conditioning loads in a hybrid power system. Different percentages of load shifting and their potential impacts on the hybrid power system reliability/cost analysis are evaluated. Using a compromise-solution method, the best compromise between the reliability and cost is realized for the hybrid power system.