New Evidence Undercutting the Linkage of Approval with Presidential Support and Influence

This article resolves the conflict between standard analyses of approval and presidential influence; one suggesting a strong relationship, the other suggesting very little relationship. We introduce a new sequential approach, specifying two theoretical linkages: the standard "success" linkage and a "conversion" linkage. We use "sway" and headcount data to test the standard hypotheses about approval, including Neustadt's (1960) "shift of range" and asymmetry hypotheses and Edwards (1989) partisan and bounded partisanship hypotheses. We demonstrate that approval plays little role in presidential influence. Future research will apply this approach and data to more complex, less standard conceptualizations of the linkage.