The Politics of Path-Breaking Change: The Transformation of the Welfare State in Britain and Germany

Nowhere is the concept of path dependence more entrenched than with regard to the welfare state and its component institutions. Esping-Andersen's influential conception of three welfare paths remains the dominant paradigm for understanding social policy regimes. Drawing on the cases of Britain and Germany, this paper argues that path-breaking change is occurring in mature welfare states. These transformations, however, are not explained by path dependence theory, as rigorously formulated in terms of increasing returns, for at least four reasons: path-breaking change has not been delivered by an unpredictable event; multiple alternative paths have not been available to policy makers at the point of change; ageing institutions have not strengthened through increasing returns over the past two decades; and critical actors have not reinforced old welfare paths.