Key result
The median effective reproduction number (Reff) of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2020 was 1.54, with significant regional and seasonal variations in transmissibility.
Why the study?
Hand, foot, and mouth disease poses a serious disease burden in the Asia-Pacific region, including China.
Observational
Yes
Effect estimate: Median 1.54 (95% CI 0.49-2.50)
HFMD transmissibility in Jiangsu Province showed significant spatiotemporal variation, with an average effective reproduction number of 1.54, likely influenced by climate, demographics, and viral subtypes.
Varied county-level HFMD transmissibility supports targeted surveillance; leaves open drivers for intervention design.
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious disease burden in the Asia–Pacific region, including China. This study calculated the transmissibility of HFMD at county levels in Jiangsu Province, China, analyzed the differences of transmissibility and explored the possible influencing factors of its transmissibility. We built a mathematical model for seasonal characteristics of HFMD, estimated the effective reproduction number ( R eff ), and compared the incidence rate and transmissibility in different counties using non-parametric tests, rapid cluster analysis and rank-sum ratio in 97 counties in Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2020. The average daily incidence rate was between 0 and 4 per 100,000 people in Jiangsu Province from 2015–2020. The Quartile of R eff in Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2020 was 1.54 (0.49, 2.50). Rugao District and Jianhu District had the highest transmissibility according to the rank-sum ratio. R eff generally decreased in 2017 and increased in 2018 in most counties, and the median level of R eff was the lowest in 2017 ( P < 0.05). The transmissibility was different in 97 counties in Jiangsu Province. The reasons for the differences may be related to the climate, demographic characteristics, virus subtypes, vaccination, hygiene and other infectious diseases.
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Zhang et al. (2022) conducted an observational in Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). Geographic and temporal factors was evaluated on Effective reproduction number (Reff) (Median 1.54, 95% CI 0.49-2.50). The median effective reproduction number (Reff) of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2020 was 1.54, with significant regional and seasonal variations in transmissibility.
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