Key result
A 1 °C increase in mean temperature was associated with a 9.21% increase in the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (RR 1.10).
Why the study?
Most studies on hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have been carried out in humid regions, with few focusing on arid or semi-arid regions.
Observational (n=28,446)
In the semi-arid region of Ningxia, China, HFMD incidence exhibits significant spatial-temporal heterogeneity and is positively associated with temperature, humidity, and air pressure.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
May inform arid-region surveillance; leaves open climate-specific HFMD drivers pending prospective validation.
BACKGROUND: The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) varies over space and time and this variability is related to climate and social-economic factors. Majority of studies on HFMD were carried out in humid regions while few have focused on the disease in arid/semi-arid regions, more research in such climates would potentially make the mechanism of HFMD transmission clearer under different climate conditions. METHODS: In this paper, we explore spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD in Ningxia province, which has an arid/semi-arid climate in northwest China. We first employed a Bayesian space-time hierarchy model (BSTHM) to assess the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of the HFMD cases and its relationship with meteorological factors in Ningxia from 2009 to 2013, then used a novel spatial statistical software package GeoDetector to test the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of HFMD risk. RESULTS: The results showed that the spatial relative risks in northern part of Ningxia were higher than those in the south. The highest temporal risk of HFMD incidence was in fall season, with a secondary peak in spring. Meteorological factors, such as average temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed played significant roles in the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD risk. CONCLUSIONS: The study provide valuable information on HFMD distribution in arid/semi-arid areas in northwest China and facilitate understanding of the concentration of HFMD.
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Li et al. (2019) conducted an observational in Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) (n=28,446). Mean temperature was evaluated on Incidence of HFMD per 1 °C increase in mean temperature (RR 1.10, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.12). A 1 °C increase in mean temperature was associated with a 9.21% increase in the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (RR 1.10).
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