Assessing solar energy production in senegal under future climate scenarios using regional climate models

• Future solar energy production is investigated for eight solar plants in Senegal. • The projection of the solar production over the whole country is also investigated. • The equation for the solar production estimation is validated using in situ data. • Bias correction is performed for a more accurate result. • A decrease in solar energy production ranging from -0.43 to -1.14 kWh/year is observed. The transition to renewable energy is pivotal for climate change mitigation, yet it entails a greater reliance on weather and climate conditions, impacting energy production from solar plants. Senegal's energy sector is increasingly reliant on solar power, making it essential to assess its long-term viability under changing climate conditions. This study evaluates future solar energy production in Senegal up to 2050, focusing on eight operational solar plants: Bokhol, Sakal, Malicounda, Kahone, Ten Merina, Mekhe, Ndiass, and Kael. The regional climate model (RegCM4) driven by three Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CORDEX-CORE simulations is used and the analysis is conducted under the RCP8.5 scenario. The shortwave solar radiation and ambient air temperature at 2m from the ERA5 re-analysis provided by the ECMWF are used to evaluate the RegCM4 simulations. Bias correction is applied to enhance the model's accuracy. The validation shows that ERA5 captured the temporal pattern of solar energy production. For the intensity, a minor relative bias averaging 5.6% over the considered period is noted. Without correction, the model exhibits a relative bias of 10.4%, which improves to 0.11% after correction. Additionally, the results show a general decreasing trend in solar energy production over the country. The solar plants are projected to have a decrease in production ranging from -0.43 to -1.14 kWh/year. Policymakers should diversify energy sources, invest in storage solutions, and adopt climate-resilient solar technologies. This study provides insights into the potential impacts of climate change on solar energy generation in Senegal, informing policymakers and stakeholders to optimize power generation and ensure a sustainable energy future.