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A simple mathematical model of the life‐cycle of Avena fatua L. is described and used to consider the financial consequences to the farmer of controlling A. fatua infestations in winter wheat. The likely economic benefits of applying herbicides in different cultivation regimes are investigated. The sensitivity of the model to variations in herbicide performance, straw burning, initial weed infestation and the value of the wheat crop is tested. The model predicts that the highest long‐term benefits will be obtained when a herbicide is applied every time wild oats exceed a density of between 2 and 3 seedlings m −2 . Whether or not this results in a significant financial saving over spraying every year depends on the initial level of infestation and on the cultivation method. Whether straw is burnt or not is likely to be of little economic significance.
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Cousens et al. (1986) studied this question.
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