Comparative time-series study shows superior price forecasting accuracy using neural networks over SARIMA-GARCH in agricultural markets, highlighting pathways to mitigate market volatility.
India's global dominance in red chilli production necessitates accurate price forecasting due to its volatile nature.The present study investigated the effectiveness of SARIMA-GARCH and ANN models in forecasting daily modal prices of red chillies in the Khammam market of Telangana.A dataset from January 2007 to December 2023 was employed and it was found that ANN model (2-30-1) outperformed SARIMA (2,1,3) (1,1,1)12 -GARCH (1,1) model in terms of forecast accuracy.These findings can inform farmers' decisions and aid policymakers in mitigating price volatility.
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Sai et al. (2025) studied this question.
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