Mitigating sustainability uncertainty in the United States: the roles of renewable energy transition, digital inclusion, technological innovation, and environmental governance

Uncertainty regarding sustainability has become a central challenge for advanced economies, eroding policy credibility, discouraging long-term investment, and heightening systemic risk. The United States illustrates this contradiction: it leads globally in technological innovation but remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels and constrained by decentralized governance. This study provides the first empirical assessment of U.S. sustainability uncertainty using quarterly data from 2003Q1–2022Q4. Employing wavelet quantile regression, wavelet quantile correlation, and quantile-on-quantile Granger causality, the analysis captures nonlinear, asymmetric, and scale-dependent dynamics often missed by standard econometric approaches. Results reveal that renewable energy transition and environmental governance heighten uncertainty in median and stable states, reflecting transitional frictions and institutional volatility. Technological innovation exerts mixed effects – reducing uncertainty under stable conditions but amplifying it in turbulent periods. Digital inclusion consistently reduces uncertainty, especially in high states, underscoring its role as a resilience-enhancing factor. Robustness checks using Kernel Regularized Quantile Regression confirm the validity of these findings. Policy implications emphasize the need for coherent governance, smoother energy transitions, balanced innovation regulation, and broader digital access. Together, these measures can convert volatility into resilience, enabling the U.S. to pair technological leadership with sustainable stability among advanced economies.