A new technique for determining the terminal reliability of probabilistic networks is derived and discussed. The technique uses set-theoretic concepts to partition the space of all graph realizations in a way which permits extremely fast evaluation of the source-to-terminal probability. If not allowed to run to completion, the algorithm yields rapidly converging upper and lower bounds on that probability. Comparison with algorithms in the recent literature shows a decrease of one or two orders of magnitude in required CPU time.
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Dotson et al. (1979) studied this question.
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