Using Machine Learning for Early Prediction of Cardiogenic Shock in Patients with Acute Heart Failure

Objective: Despite technological and treatment advancements over the past two decades, cardiogenic shock (CS) mortality has remained between 40-60%. A number of factors can lead to delayed diagnosis of CS, including gradual onset and nonspecific symptoms. Our objective was to develop an algorithm that can continuously monitor heart failure patients, and partition them into cohorts of high- and low-risk for CS. Methods: We retrospectively studied 24,461 patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure, 265 of whom developed CS, in the Johns Hopkins Healthcare system. Our cohort identification approach is based on logistic regression, and makes use of vital signs, lab values, and medication administrations recorded during the normal course of care. Results: Our algorithm identified patients at high-risk of CS. Patients in the high-risk cohort had 10.2 times (95% confidence interval 6.1-17.2) higher prevalence of CS than those in the low-risk cohort. Patients who experienced cardiogenic shock while in the high-risk cohort were first deemed high-risk a median of 1.7 days (interquartile range 0.8 to 4.6) before cardiogenic shock diagnosis was made by their clinical team. Conclusions: This risk model was able to predict patients at higher risk of CS in a time frame that allowed a change in clinical care. Future studies need to evaluate if CS analysis of high-risk cohort identification may affect outcomes.