Bayesian Estimation of Tobramycin Exposure in Patients with Cystic Fibrosis: an Update

A Bayesian forecasting (BF) comparison of estimated tobramycin exposures (area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h [AUC(0-24)]) to truely measured exposures demonstrated accuracy in adult patients with cystic fibrosis (1). Clinical practice relies on two blood samples to estimate drug exposure; however, BF has the potential to estimate the AUC0-24 using one concentration, which would be more practical and cost-effective. Theoretically, with BF methods, the predictive performance of estimating an individual's exposure should improve with additional observations (2, 3); however, there is limited applicable evidence (4), particularly against true exposure.