Uncertain Interval-Based Risk Dispatch Approach of Power Systems Under an Unified Framework of Multiple Uncertainties

Quantifying operational risks of power systems under multiple uncertainties and determining necessary reserves present complex challenges. This article introduces a risk dispatch approach based on uncertain intervals to address the conservatism of existing interval optimization methods. We use an uncertain model based on an interval random variable (IRV), substituting the unknown probability distributions of random variables. We establish a framework combining IRV and probabilistic random variable for risk quantification, leading to a risk evaluation model centered on uncertain interval–probabilistic conditional value-at-risk. We establish the joint probability distribution of wind power and load. Following this, we introduce reserve models based on the relative positions of actual and prediction intervals. Subsequently, we present an enhanced economic dispatch based on uncertain intervals to achieve more accurate results. Our proposed method breaks down the uncertain interval-based dispatch problem into two suboptimization models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method by applying it to IEEE-39 and IEEE-118 bus systems.